In the grueling first two weeks of Ukraine's counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the ordnance that was sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to American and European officials. Casualties included some of the formidable Western fighting machines – tanks and armored personnel carriers – Ukraine was counting on to defeat Russia.
Surprising loss rates fell to around 10 percent in the following weeks, officials said, while retaining more troops and machinery needed for the major offensive push that Ukraine said was yet to come.
Some of the upgrades came as Ukraine changed tactics, focusing more on weakening Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than attacking minefields and enemy fire.
But the good news obscures some grim realities. Losses have also slowed as the counteroffensive itself has slowed – and even stalled in places – as the Ukrainian army struggles against the formidable Russian defences. And despite the loss, the Ukrainians have so far taken only five of the 60 miles they expected to reach the sea to the south and split the Russian army in two.
A Ukrainian soldier said in an interview this week that his unit's drone captured footage of half a dozen Western armored vehicles caught in an artillery barrage south of the town of Velyka Novosilka.
“They're all on fire,” said the soldier who identified himself as Sgt. Igor. “Everyone is hoping for a major breakthrough,” he said, adding a plea that those watching from afar appreciate the importance of slow and steady progress.
The Russians had months to prepare for a counteroffensive, and the front was littered with mines, tank booby traps and troop dug in, while Russian reconnaissance drones and attack helicopters flew overhead with increasing frequency.
Given the fortifications, experts say, it is not surprising that the Ukrainians would suffer relatively heavy losses at the initial stage of the campaign.
This week, Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, acknowledged that there had been a brief lull in operations in the past few weeks but blamed a lack of equipment and ammunition, and called on Western allies to speed up deliveries.
American officials acknowledged the lull and said Ukraine had started moving again, but more deliberately, more adept at navigating minefields and mindful of casualty risks. With the introduction of cluster munitions from the United States, they said, the speed might increase.
“It's not as fast, but it's not too behind schedule,” Britain's Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace, said on Wednesday. “It did what everyone else had to fight through the minefields to the Russian lines.”
Problems came into focus at the farm fields in southern Ukraine where many counter-offensives were carried out. There the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, which Ukrainians have long coveted, has run over an anti-tank mine every day, say soldiers fighting in the vehicle.
The vehicle, which weighs about 34 tons, is designed to carry infantry soldiers through areas that have been hit by shelling or artillery. Back roads open to allow soldiers to pile up and fight. In planning the counteroffensive, Bradley intended to take soldiers across open fields to reach Russian trenches and bunkers.
The Bradleys have done some of their jobs well; Their thick armor provided good protection for most of the soldiers, who survived many mine explosions with little injury.
“Your ears are ringing and the things inside are flying,” said one soldier, who asked to be identified only by his first name and rank, Private. Serhiy. He survived such an explosion last month in fighting south of the city of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region. But in many cases, the explosions severely damaged the vehicles, immobilizing them long before they could reach Russian lines.
Military experts have long said that the first 15 miles of counteroffensive would be the most difficult, as an attacking force generally requires three times as much force — either in arms, personnel, or both — than a defending force.
Ukraine's top military officer, General Valery Zaluzhny, expressed frustration that Ukraine is fighting without F-16 Western fighters, which the United States recently approved to allow Ukrainian pilots to train for, but are not expected to deliver for several months. at least. That leaves Ukrainian forces vulnerable to Russian helicopters and artillery.
Military analysts warn that it is too early to draw firm conclusions about a counter strike. “That doesn't mean it will fail,” said Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former assistant secretary general of NATO.
Nevertheless, he added, the lack of air superiority and air defense that Western jets can provide for Ukrainian strikes means “that casualty rates are likely to be higher than in any conventional conflict.”
The exact number of weapons and armored vehicles that had been destroyed in the counterattack, as well as repairable “mobility killers”, is a closely guarded secret, and US officials did not provide raw figures, although they agreed on percentages. missing weaponry. But a combination of open-source data and official estimates can provide an idea of the timing of the destruction, especially in the early stages.
Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade, one of three Western-equipped and trained units deployed early in the campaign, is set to receive 99 Bradleys, according to US military counterattack plans leaked from February—still the latest to be made public.
data from Oryx, military analysis site which only visually confirmed losses show that 28 of the Bradleys were abandoned, damaged or destroyed, including 15 in a village in Zaporizhzhia Province on 8 and 9 June when the 47th was attacked by helicopters while trapped in a minefield . Six additional Bradleys were reported abandoned or destroyed at Mala Tokmachka on 26 June, but Oryx researchers say this loss occurred earlier, though it's unclear exactly when.
Given that the 47th was the only brigade originally slated to receive the Bradleys, it meant that nearly a third of the original vehicles had been lost – although all but seven of these were blown up in one engagement.
“It is possible that Ukrainian forces have seen losses at this level,” said Dylan Lee Lehrke, an analyst with British security intelligence firm Janes, adding that “significant” levels of weapons losses are generally a feature of war. friction, such as the one in Ukraine.
Oryx data shows that only 24 tanks were lost in the month of June, including some from Ukraine's own arsenal as well as those supplied by the Western allies.
Ten of them were German-made Leopard and mine-sweeper tanks, the data showed. Presumably, they lost the battle to the Ukrainian 33rd Mechanized Brigade, one of three units deployed at the start of the counteroffensive, and scheduled to receive 32 Leopards in US planning documents from 28 February.
That meant the brigade lost 30 percent of the given Leopards – all but two in the first week of fighting, Oryx data shows.
Ukrainian authorities say troops have so far advanced the deepest in the southern Donetsk region, but no further than five miles from the former front line at Velyka Novosilka. It faced another 55 miles from reaching the Sea of Azov, the main objective of the counteroffensive, as it would cut the land bridge to Crimea, wreaking havoc with already faltering Russian logistics. Ukrainian troops are also advancing in two areas of the Zaporizhzhia region.
It was even slower near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, where most of the Bradley and Leopards had been sent into open field areas with little cover. There, the Ukrainians advanced only about a mile.
Check Justin reporting contribution from London.