Antony J. Blinken touched down in Beijing early Sunday, the US secretary of state's first visit to China since 2018. Strained relations have put the trip on hold for months: He had intended to visit in February, but was put off after the Pentagon announced that a reconnaissance balloon China drifted across the continental United States.
Mr. Blinken and other American officials have expressed hope that the visit could open an era of more constructive diplomacy. But China has maintained a confrontational attitude in recent weeks, raising fears that the meeting in Beijing could end up being more antagonistic than friendly.
The two sides brought a list of grievances and issues to be discussed in a two-day meeting that is likely to be a critical gauge of whether China and the United States can mend ties in the near future.
Mr Blinken began his first meeting in the afternoon, when he walked down the hall at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse with Qin Gang, China's foreign minister, who until a few months ago was ambassador in Washington. They sat at a long table in a room with their delegations facing each other, starting their conversation without addressing journalists.
Later that day, a spokesman for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs keep an optimistic note on Twitter, recalling a meeting between Chinese and American leaders last year when they promised to try to stabilize relations:
“Hopefully this meeting can help steer China-US relations back as agreed upon by the two Presidents in Bali.”
What issues are on Blinken's list?
American officials have emphasized that reestablishing high-level diplomacy is their priority. They say the two sides need to establish channels of communication to defuse existing tensions that might escalate during a crisis—say, a collision between naval ships or planes in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea.
Security issues tend to be overwhelming. American officials are increasingly concerned about the close proximity of the Chinese military in the seas around China. The United States is also closely watching China's efforts to set up military bases in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and has warned China against providing lethal military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
Blinken plans to talk to Chinese officials about global issues in which the two countries may have common interests, including climate change and economic stability around the world, said Daniel J. Kritenbrink, the State Department's top East Asia official.
Mr Blinken is also likely to ask China to release some American citizens who are detained, imprisoned or barred from leaving the country, and try to restart some person-to-person exchanges. That may include expanding the small number of journalist visas each country has agreed to grant each other early in the Biden administration before relations soured.
US officials also said they hoped to talk to China about curbing the export of a substance used to make fentanyl, a drug that causes a deadly addiction problem in the United States and other countries.
What might China say?
China is expected to file a series of complaints reflecting Beijing's view that the United States is a declining hegemon determined to maintain power by containing China economically, militarily, and diplomatically.
At the top of China's list is Taiwan, a de facto independent island that Beijing claims as its own territory and receives military assistance from Washington.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has described Taiwan as “the core of China's core interests” and accused the United States of supporting “pro-independence” forces and meddling in China's internal affairs.
China is also likely to express deep frustration at US-led efforts to limit China's access to advanced semiconductor chips and manufacturing equipment. The restrictions, which the United States says are necessary to prevent American technology from falling into the hands of the People's Liberation Army, could hinder China's technological development for years. China sees the ban as an example of “zero-sum competition” pushing the two countries towards confrontation.
Despite China's rapid military build-up, Beijing is expected to accuse Washington of trying to provoke conflict by deepening security ties with regional powers including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and India.
China says it ultimately wants the United States to treat it like a peer power so that it has an equal voice on the global stage and does not feel threatened by the US military presence in Asia.
Will Xi meet Blinken in person?
One big question hanging over the trip was whether Mr. Blinken will meet with Mr. Xi. American and Chinese officials are still working out the final details of Mr. Blinken last week, and there may not be confirmation of a meeting between the two until the last minute. Much will depend on how the meetings go on Sunday and Monday morning.
However, the two men had spoken before. Mr. Blinken has met Mr. Xi on several occasions, including in 2011 when he traveled to Beijing and Chengdu as national security adviser to Joe Biden, then vice president and assigned to go to China to get to know Mr. Xi, his colleague at the time.
Weighing in on Mr Xi's appearance may be his and other Chinese officials' attempts to present a more diplomatic face to the world recently, including his acceptance of a series of foreign leaders in China this year.
Vivian Wang reporting contribution.