As Republican candidates enter the 2024 presidential race, Times columnists, Opinion writers and others will assess their strengths and weaknesses with a scorecard. We rate candidates on a scale of 1 to 10: 1 means the candidate will probably drop out before the caucus or primary vote; 10 means the candidate has a very strong chance of receiving the party's nomination next summer. This entry assesses Tim Scott, the junior senator from South Carolina, who announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination on Monday.
How seriously should we take Tim Scott's candidacy?
Jamelle Bouie The chances of Tim Scott leaving single digits, let alone overtaking Donald Trump, are slim, but I still think we should take Scott's candidacy seriously for what it might say about Republicans after Trump.
Jane Coaston We must take it much more seriously than we will ultimately do.
Michelle Cottle Maybe divide Ron DeSantis' odds by Nikki Haley's odds, then multiply by the square root of Vivek Ramaswamy's odds.
Ross Douthat The only reason to take Scott more seriously than his South Carolina counterpart Nikki Haley is because he lacks a national identity and brand, so there's a little more room for him to surprise us on the campaign trail. For now, though, he occupies roughly the same terrain as he does: a donor-friendly, telegenic candidate from a multiracial future who lacks the populist edge necessary to satisfy the mood of a much grimmer, more belligerent conservative electorate.
Rosie Grey Like any other non-Trump Republican entering the race, the odds are against him. However, he has already proven attractive to major GOP donors and is popular in the Senate (not that that helped other Republicans a lot in 2016).
Michelle Goldberg He's a long shot, but we have to take him more seriously than any of Trump's other declared challengers. He is loved by the conservative elite, reportedly has $22 million in the bank and will probably be the most formidable Republican in the general election.
Liz Mair He's an unlikely GOP presidential nominee — but a very likely vice presidential nominee.
Daniel McCarthy Tim Scott is the most serious candidate who isn't Trump or Ron DeSantis. That may seem like a faint compliment. But major Republican voters have been eager to consider black candidates in recent cycles: Herman Cain in 2012, Ben Carson in 2016. That desire gave Scott a shot.
Alex Stroman Tim Scott is a serious candidate with a biography that in another year would make him one of the most likely presidential candidates. Strong run in Iowa — a state made especially for candidates like Scott — could still propel him to the nomination.
What is most important about him as a presidential candidate?
bouie In terms of his assets as a candidate, he is one of the most outstanding and impressive fundraisers in the Republican Party, which is a testament to his serious retail political skills. But what really matters is the fact that he's trying to build on the things Trump has brought to Republican politics while also trying to shape a different direction for the party.
coast He is a candidate with self-concept and policy direction. He is fiercely conservative, but his conservatism is rooted in conservative policies, not just conservative performance. His police reform bill favors oversight over reduced protection for the police in civil cases, for example. It's not my ideal, but at least that's what I understand.
Cottle As the only Black Republican in the Senate, he was a seasoned elected leader who could help soften the party's image as a bunch of grumpy, racist old white folks.
Douthat From his perspective, what matters most is whether Ron DeSantis collapses and there is a scramble to find a different anti-Trump candidate — or more sensibly, whether he can sell himself as a convincing vice presidential candidate for his eventual nominee. From a country perspective, he and Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy are all reminders that the GOP is, in its own way, a multiethnic big marquee — but not in the way Scott is likely to be its nominee.
Gray For one thing, Scott's candidacy is historic in that she is the first black official to seek the Republican presidential nomination, as Jamelle Bouie recently pointed out. And his candidacy, like Haley's, will be a test of how much support there really is for the old GOP formation favorite.
Goldberg Whites on the right like black conservatives largely liberating them from racial issues while impeaching progressives.
Mair Scott's entire personality and approach is at odds with what is currently dominant in the Republican Party. He is a very positive, optimistic and cheerful person. You don't find that often in politics today – in either party. He is also intelligent and a very strong communicator, even when explaining complex policies.
McCarthy His candidacy makes it harder to ignore black men who support the GOP. In Scott, they have a successful example within the party. Nearly one in five black men nationwide voted for Donald Trump in 2020 – Senator Scott will expand the national conversation as well as the Republican Party field.
Stroman He inspires and doesn't turn off MAGA moderators or supporters. He's a conservative, but he's not mad about it – a refreshing outlier when both sides are dominated by loud voices playing on their bases and ignoring the middle. If his keynote speeches (2020 Republican National Convention address and 2021 response to President Biden's first speech to Congress) are anything like his campaign, I hope he will run a compassionate, conservative-style race focused on uplifting and uniting the country and making Americans feel proud again. .
What do you find most inspiring—or troubling—about his vision for America?
bouie I think she, along with her South Carolina colleague Nikki Haley, represent one vision for multiracial ideological conservatism that might have legs.
coast He sounds like a man outside of Washington, compared to his party, which talks a lot about the crimes of the Beltway without ever leaving. Right now, who is Republican and who is Democrat is shifting. There's no better example of that than Tim Scott.
Cottle He's aiming for a vibe of unity and optimism – more “morning in America” than “American carnage.”
Douthat Scott seems like the heir to Jack Kemp's old blueprint for how the Republican Party might thrive in a multiracial future — with the optimistic, equal opportunity, color-blind-capitalism-raises-all-boats vision of the American experiment. This vision was too simple in the Kemp era and is too simple now; however, it is part of what healthy conservatism has to offer the country.
Gray Scott markets himself as a positive, optimistic, let's work together, but his politics align with the most die-hard conservatives in his party. Whether this is inspiring or unsettling I guess depends on one's point of view.
Goldberg He is a bright and optimistic figure, not a warrior of apocalyptic culture, and has a record of bipartisan work on criminal justice reform. I would be very sad if Scott became president, but I would not be afraid.
Mair Scott's personal story truly exemplifies why he believes what he believes about limited government and petty conservatism, and why it will open up opportunities for many Americans who historically haven't had them. And Scott himself is an inspiring man.
McCarthy What's most inspiring about Senator Scott's vision is the integration of certain voice priorities old and new: stronger border enforcement, including building a wall that Trump proposed in 2016, combined with traditional GOP themes that are unsexy but urgent like limiting the national debt. Scott is by no means a national conservative, but he has learned some lessons from populism without losing sight of what was true about older fiscal orthodoxy.
Stroman He didn't go to Fordham or to an Ivy League school—he went to Charleston Southern, a small Southern Baptist university near his hometown, North Charleston, where he announced his presidential campaign. He was raised by a single mother in poverty, and became only the seventh black U.S. senator in American history. Through his story, Scott has the ability to attract new voters to the party—if the primary elector gives him a chance.
Imagine you are a GOP agent or campaign manager. What's your elevator pitch for Scott's candidacy?
bouie Americans love happy warriors, and Scott is nothing if not a happy warrior.
coast He speaks to optimistic conservatism – one that believes in its own rhetoric.
Cottle He has a great back story, and he would be a heckuva VP candidate.
Douthat If the Republican Party can appear normal, friendly, and non-apocalyptic for more than five minutes, it could beat Joe Biden by five points. Why not nominate Scott and give it a shot?
Gray Scott has a compelling story and a more positive message than rivals like Trump and DeSantis. He could appeal to voters who are fed up with the back and forth and want a more hopeful-looking alternative.
Goldberg At a time when the Democratic Party is losing black people, Tim Scott's nomination will be a nightmare for Joe Biden.
Mair Tim Scott offers rosy optimism for a great nation whose best days truly lie ahead.
McCarthy Tim Scott is the Republican Party's answer to Project 1619.
Stroman Trump must win Iowa. But evangelicals won Iowa, and Tim Scott was an evangelical.
Jane Coaston (@janecoaston) is a staff writer at Opinion.
Michelle Cottle (@mcottle) is a member of the editorial board of The Times.
Rosie Gray (@RosieGray) is a political reporter.
Jamelle Bouie, Ross Douthat, and Michelle Goldberg are columnists for the Times.
Lis Mair (@LizMair) served as campaign strategist for Scott Walker, Roy Blunt, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, and Rick Perry. He is the founder and president of Mair Strategies.
Daniel McCarthy (@ToryAnarchist) is the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review.
Alex Stroman (@AlexStroman) is a former Republican National Committee spokesperson and executive director of the Republican Party of South Carolina.