Opinion |  The Biden-Trump Rematch Is Here

The authors find that Trump's false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him persists:

The lie is pervasive and sticky: the number of Republicans and independents who say they believe the election was rigged is substantial, and this proportion has not changed significantly over time or shifted after important political developments. Belief in lies may have boosted the self-esteem of some Trump supporters.

In response to the lies, Arceneaux and Truex write, “there was a significant increase in support for violent political activism among Democrats, which only dwindled after efforts to overturn the election clearly failed.”

Lie endorsement pays off for Republicans, Arceneaux and Truex argue: “Republican voters reward politicians who perpetuate lies, providing incentives for Republican candidates to continue to do so in the next election cycle.”

This trend is one of the most striking developments setting the stage for the 2024 elections.

Among the additional conditions favoring the Democrats is the rise of the Democratic Party ideological loyalty and consistency; liberal constituency political mobilization by adverse Supreme Court decisions; early advantage in the struggle for a the Electoral College majority; and increase in non-religious voters along with a decrease in the number of believers going to church.

These factors and others have prompted two Democratic strategists, Celinda Lake and Mike Lux, to declare that “All elements are in place for a landslide Democratic win in 2024.” In the “Democrats Could Win the Trifecta in 2024the May 9 memo released to the public, both even voicing optimism over the biggest hurdle facing Democrats, maintaining control of the Senate in 2024, when as many as eight Democrat-held seats are in contention while Republican seats are solid red. state:

While these challenges are real, they can be overcome, and the problems are exaggerated. Recall that this tough Senate map netted five Democratic pickups in the 2000 election, which Gore narrowly lost to Bush; six Democrat takes in 2006, allowing Democrats to retake the Senate; and two more in 2012. If we have a good election year overall, we have a very good chance the Democrats hold the Senate.

Republican advantages include high crime rates (although slightly decreased so far in 2023), homelessness and dysfunction in cities run by Democrats; the parental rights movement opposes the teaching of so-called critical race theory and the fluid concept of gender; And declining public support for gay rights and especially trans rights.

There are, of course, a number of uncertainties.

One key factor is the prominence on Election Day of issues closely related to race in the minds of many voters, including school integration, affordable housing, ending affirmative action, crime, urban chaos, and government spending on social programs. As a general rule, the higher these issues rank in voter priorities, the better Republicans do. In that sense, the success of conservatives in outlawing the use of race in college admissions has eliminated the Republican Party problem.